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Satellite view of Melissa in the Caribbean Sea.CIRA/RAMMB/NOAA
Kingston, Jamaica — Jamaicans have been asked to stay on high alert as an intense weather threatens Jamaica and wider Caribbean this week. A slow-moving tropical system, Tropical Storm Melissa, is expected to escalate into a hurricane while lingering over the western Caribbean Sea posing a serious flood threat to Jamaica and nearby islands.
According to meteorologists from The Weather Company, Melissa’s centre is currently several hundred miles south of Haiti, advancing northwestward. As the system intensifies and decelerates, its greatest danger will come not from wind alone but from prolonged, heavy rainfall.
Jamaica, along with parts of Hispaniola and Cuba, are forecast to receive more than 10 inches (about 250 mm) of rain over the next several days. The slow movement of the storm increases the risk of life-threatening flash floods and landslides, particularly in Jamaica’s inland and mountainous regions. Areas expected to be hardest hit include the Blue Mountains and other elevated terrains, where rainfall can rapidly generate surface runoff and landslide hazards.
While wind shear is currently limiting rapid intensification, forecasters expect Melissa to strengthen into a Category 3–4 hurricane south of Jamaica if it stays over the warm Caribbean waters. Two primary track scenarios are under consideration: a sluggish westward path lingering near Jamaica before curving northeast toward Cuba and the Bahamas. A faster northward turn earlier over Haiti or eastern Cuba, which would reduce time over Jamaica but forecasters currently believe this outcome is less likely.
Local authorities in Jamaica are urged to activate flood-watch alerts in vulnerable parishes, especially those in mountainous or hilly terrain as well as open emergency shelters in high-risk zones and pre-position relief supplies in low-lying coastal communities.
Unlike fast-moving storms that pose mainly wind threats, Melissa’s slow progression enhances rainfall accumulation increasing the risk of localized devastation from floodwater and landslides even if wind speeds remain moderate.
With Jamaica’s mountainous topography and densely settled flood plains, this combination makes Melissa a major concern, particularly in areas still recovering from previous tropical-system damage.
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