AGOA’s Endgame: What the Expiry of the U.S.–Africa Trade Pact Means for 32 Nations

For more than two decades, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has stood as a cornerstone of trade relations between the United States and sub-Saharan Africa, granting eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets.But as the program approaches its scheduled expiration in September 2025, both sides face a crucial crossroads one that could reshape the region’s trade trajectory and economic future.

From its inception in 2000, AGOA has helped eligible countries export thousands of product lines to U.S. markets, especially in apparel, textiles, and agricultural commodities. One estimate values non-crude African exports to the U.S. under AGOA at approximately $103 billion between 2001-2022.

However, the benefits have been uneven. A large portion of trade under AGOA has been concentrated in just a handful of countries and sectors, while many others struggled to penetrate U.S. value chains or diversify. The expiration of AGOA comes amid a changing global trade landscape: rising U.S. tariffs, shifts in investor focus, and growing competition from China and other global players. African policymakers and U.S. trade officials alike warn that allowing AGOA to lapse without a credible successor would send a strong negative signal.

In fact, several analysts say a failure to act could weaken U.S. influence in Africa and undermine the continent’s export-led growth models.

The expiration means that many African exporters especially those in the apparel, textile and agricultural sectors—may suddenly lose preferential marketplace access. According to the Associated Press, thousands of jobs across multiple countries are at risk as firms anticipate losing duty-free privileges. The expiration means that many African exporters especially those in the apparel, textile and agricultural sectors may suddenly lose preferential marketplace access. According to the Associated Press, thousands of jobs across multiple countries are at risk as firms anticipate losing duty-free privileges. For example, Kenya’s textile sector, which expanded under AGOA, faces shrinking margins and uncertainty in the face of Asian competitors.

Experts suggest three possible scenarios:

• A straightforward renewal of AGOA in its current form, providing stability and continuity.

• A re-architected version of AGOA: shorter term extension with updated eligibility criteria, a stronger focus on value-added exports, and deeper integration into African value chains. 

• A replacement strategy: letting AGOA expire and shifting toward bilateral trade deals with individual African nations or regional trade frameworks, aligning with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

For countries like Ghana, which leveraged AGOA benefits, the path forward involves:

• Diversifying exports beyond commodities (e.g., textiles, agro-processing).

• Strengthening regional value chains under AfCFTA to reduce reliance on U.S. preference access.

• Investing in structural reforms – trade logistics, regulatory frameworks, and manufacturing competitiveness – to make any future U.S. access more mutually beneficial.

The expiration of AGOA isn’t just a trade technicality, it's a signal about the future of the U.S. Africa economic engagement. African nations have advanced under the program, but the fall-out from its expiry may be significant unless there is swift action. For Washington, the question is whether to renew a quarter-century old trade tool or redesign a fresh framework for the 21st-century African market. The choices made now will determine who sets the agenda: the U.S., Africa  or others.

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