S&P Upgrades Ghana to ‘B-/B’ on Fiscal Reforms and Rising Reserves
S&P Global - Photo credit S&P Global
Accra, Ghana- Global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has raised Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings from “CCC+/C” to “B-/B” with a stable outlook, citing improved fiscal discipline, stronger reserves, and the country’s success in restructuring its debt and stabilizing the economy after years of turbulence.
The upgrade reflects what S&P called Ghana’s “gradually strengthening balance-of-payments and fiscal positions,” supported by resilient domestic growth and favorable global prices for gold and cocoa which together account for over 60 percent of the nation’s exports.
“We expect Ghana’s external position to continue improving through 2026, underpinned by stronger export earnings, a firmer currency, and inflation returning to single digits,” S&P noted in its November 7, 2025 report.
According to S&P, Ghana’s gross foreign-currency reserves have surged to nearly $11 billion, equivalent to about 9 percent of GDP up from $6.8 billion in 2024 supported by higher gold and cocoa export volumes and favorable global prices. The cedi has appreciated by roughly 30 percent this year, while inflation has fallen to 8 percent its lowest since 2021 and is forecast to stay below 10 percent through 2026.
The agency highlighted Ghana’s improved fiscal management under the new government led by the National Democratic Congress (NDC), which took office in December 2024. The administration has introduced a mandated 1.5 percent of GDP primary surplus rule and a debt ceiling target of 45 percent of GDP by 2034, alongside an independent fiscal council to monitor discipline and correct deviations within four months.
“This upgrade affirms that our reforms are delivering results,” said Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson. “We remain committed to fiscal prudence, debt sustainability and building a resilient, inclusive economy.”
Ghana completed the exchange of $13.1 billion in Eurobonds in October 2024, following its default in December 2022, and continues negotiations to finalize restructuring of the remaining $5 billion owed to official and commercial creditors.
S&P said that while some disputes with lenders including the African Export-Import Bank and the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank could delay final resolution, the overall progress “marks a decisive turning point in Ghana’s debt sustainability efforts.”
As a result, S&P also revised upward Ghana’s transfer and convertibility assessment to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’, indicating improved prospects for foreign-currency stability and investor confidence.
S&P projects Ghana’s economy will expand by 6 percent in 2025, up from 4.5 percent previously forecast, driven by industrial output, gold exports, and cocoa production boosted by favorable weather and new financing structures under the Ghana Cocoa Board.
Budget execution through mid-2025 has been in line with targets, with capital spending reduced by 60 percent year-on-year due to tighter controls and prioritization of high-impact projects. The government expects to achieve its 1.5 percent primary surplus target and keep fiscal deficits near 3.8 percent of GDP on average through 2028 down sharply from 7.3 percent over the past decade.
The 2026 budget, scheduled for parliamentary approval on November 13, is expected to consolidate these gains, simplify Ghana’s multiple levy regime, and integrate the COVID-19 Levy into VAT to broaden the tax base.
Despite the upgrade, S&P warned that Ghana remains vulnerable to commodity price shocks, election-year fiscal pressures, and external weather-related disruptions that could impact agriculture and exports.
The agency also noted that while interest payments are falling now averaging 20 percent of government revenue versus 44 percent before the 2022 default Ghana’s fiscal reforms “remain untested through an electoral cycle.”
In its stable outlook, S&P said the upgrade “balances stronger balance-of-payments performance and fiscal outcomes against high debt-service costs and reform implementation risks.”
It added that Ghana’s rating could be raised again in the next 12 to 18 months if the government sustains low deficits and continues building reserves, but could be lowered if fiscal reform momentum stalls or export conditions weaken.
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